OPINION PAPER | The West, China, and Russia: Who Doesn’t Really Prefer Change of Power in Turkey in 2023?

Turkey will go to the elections somewhere between May and June 2023. However, it is not possible to say that the elections would be held in a democratic environment. The 20-year Erdogan Administration has done a lot of damage to democratic institutions and the freedom of press which have ensured the elections to be held under fair conditions. According to the World Freedom Report[1] published by Freedom House; Turkey ranks 144th among 195 countries. According to the world press freedom index published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF)[2], Turkey ranks 149th among 180 countries. According to the assessment made in the report, Presidential government system caused a massive decline in press freedom in Turkey.

The backsliding of democratic values in Turkey has also disrupted economic growth. The country is going through a serious economic crisis. According to the report “Livelihood and Solidarity in Istanbul in the Clamp of the Economic Crisis” prepared by the Istanbul Planning Agency[3], the middle class, which constitutes the backbone of the society, is becoming increasingly poor and even has difficulty procuring basic foodstuffs. Income distribution inequality continues to worsen. Inflation is higher in Turkey than in Russia and Ukraine, which are at war. The Turkish lira (TRY) is rapidly depreciating against other currencies. As a matter of fact, TRY has lost 75% value against the US dollar in the last 18 months. Border provinces such as Edirne and Artvin are full of Bulgarian and Georgian citizens coming to Turkey for shopping cheaper. Although Turkey has the second largest army in NATO, Turkey’s eastern and southern borders are easily crossed by refugees who want to travel to Europe. Due to the rapidly increasing refugee population, the demographic structure of Turkish society is also changing. The fact that a part of the society considers refugees as the reason of the ongoing economic crisis causes an increase in the feeling of hatred in the society.

However, despite all these negative developments, President Erdogan is still the favourite candidate in the polls for the 2023 Presidential elections. According to the public opinion survey conducted by Metropoll Research Company in October 2022; 46.3% of the society supports the People’s Alliance consisting of the governing AKP and its nationalist partner MHP, while the support given to the Nation Alliance representing the opposition front is 36.9%[4]. These figures point out that a considerable part of Turkish society will prefer President Erdogan and the People’s Alliance to the opposition front by hoping that the current problems will be solved if President Erdogan can once again be elected as president.

There are multiple reasons behind this political picture. First of all, Erdogan Administration controls the conventional media outlets that can shape the public perception and uses social media platforms intensively for political propaganda. Opposition block on the other hand, cannot make effective opposition and cannot devise policies to convince the electorate that they can solve the current problems facing the entire country. In addition, latest foreign policy developments have helped create the conditions that President Erdogan can use to increase his political support…